The Unstable Diffusion discord community has announced their intent to launch a Kickstarter campaign on December 9th to fund "the research and development of AI models fine-tuned and trained on extremely large datasets specifically curated to help you more easily create beautiful art that is body and sex positive."
Conditional on the campaign starting, will this Kickstarter be successfully funded?
Resolves YES upon the Kickstarter campaign hitting its minimum funding target. [Edit: Funding target revealed. $25,000]
Resolves N/A if the Kickstarter is not created by December 15th. [Edit: it was started on time]
Resolves NO if the Kickstarter campaign fails to make its minimum funding target by the end of the campaign. That said, in the past some Kickstarters have used multiple platforms to add up the number to given goals. If this happens here, there could be a scenario where this resolves YES on the strength of these secondary market raises.
The intention of this market is to determine conditional upon them getting their act together to ask the community for money, whether or not Unstable Diffusion is going to get the money to make a go of it.
My intention is to lock in a fixed Close Date once the end date of the Kickstarter is known. Using a temporary close date until then.
Related questions
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ54 | |
| 2 | αΉ10 | |
| 3 | αΉ8 | |
| 4 | αΉ4 | |
| 5 | αΉ2 |
I assume you just cared that it would reach its funding goal. Turns out that the whole project was retroactively cancelled by Kickstarter:
https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/21/kickstarter-shut-down-the-campaign-for-ai-porn-group-unstable-diffusion-amid-changing-guidelines/
I'm guessing this wouldn't change the resolution criteria, because it just asks if it reaches the target.
@LarsDoucet Correct. I rather expected that they'd get shut down after reaching their initial funding goal once Kickstarter realized the bomb they had on their hands, even though I didn't know how big the targets were going to be at the time of market creation.
In the interest of allowing the market to settle before some at-market-creation-time possibly very distant end date, because I am hyper-conscious of settling times I carved out an allowance for cancellation after reaching the initial goal in the market description:
"The intention of this market is to determine conditional upon them getting their act together to ask the community for money, whether or not Unstable Diffusion is going to get the money to make a go of it."
https://manifold.markets/EdwardKmett/will-the-unstable-diffusion-kicksta-0eb2b4997d44 is a follow-on market for their current top stretch goal.
