This market resolves YES if the result is > 50%.
This market resolves NO if the result is < 50%.
After all, in either such situation, the people will have spoken and who am I to stand athwart the mob?
In the event this market resolves to exactly 50%, then this market resolves to match to my personal humble opinion expressed as PROB.
As an extra wrinkle, resolution shall take between 0 and 7 days, based on how closely my personal opinion matches the market outcome probability. (Better match = closer to 0).
I shall not bid on this market.
My precommitted opinion: d1a4506e6cdd7487cc21db153eb4a097b136219f
The resolution time and 50% criteria are attempted refinements on past markets such as:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ99 | |
| 2 | Ṁ84 | |
| 3 | Ṁ80 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
The intention of this market is to play around with how well these respond to hidden variables and cyclic structure at the same time. (Not that any one market is going to tease apart all those variables!)
Afterall, there are competing pressures: the naive push to 50% to try to maximize returns under a uniform prior, which you'd get in a preference-less world, the desire to err towards my actual hidden variable amount of preferenceto get back funds through faster resolution faster, the true preferences of the bettor...
I'm ultimately curious how those all net out.