Will the 2024 presidential election have at least 60% voter turnout
EduardoFilippi avatar
Eduardo Filippi
5
Ṁ130
2024
77%
chance

for reference 2020's election had historic turnout that passed the 60% treshold.

Calculating the exact voter turnout in the US is a complicated problem, so I'll be resolving with whatever number appears for VEP on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections
one month after the election is over

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drevv avatar
drevv

There are different definitions on Wiki. Will you resolve via VAP or VEP? (VEP is 2-5pp higher than VAP)

EduardoFilippi avatar
Eduardo Filippipredicts YES

@drevv good point, VEP

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of NO

Republicans are boycotting debates and elections