
Will the 2024 presidential election have at least 60% voter turnout
5
Ṁ80Ṁ130
2024
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ12 +29%
New probability
78% +1.4%
for reference 2020's election had historic turnout that passed the 60% treshold.
Calculating the exact voter turnout in the US is a complicated problem, so I'll be resolving with whatever number appears for VEP on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections
one month after the election is over
Get Ṁ500 play money
Related questions
Sort by:

There are different definitions on Wiki. Will you resolve via VAP or VEP? (VEP is 2-5pp higher than VAP)
Related questions
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
S G
Will someone other than Joe Biden win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic Primary?

Joshua
Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Spongpad
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?

Lisa Marsh
Which states will be won by the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2024?
Gabrielle
Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?

Isaac King
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the youth turnout rate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election be above 50%?

Sárkány Vár
Will a Democrat win the White House in 2024?

Bolton Bailey
Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential election?

sam
Will the democratic party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Ammon Lam
Will Joe Biden WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?

Martin Randall
US Recession before 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Metaculus BotBot
US Government Shutdown Before 2024 (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Metaculus BotBot
Will the 2024 election be closer than 2020?

Plasma Ballin'
Will more than 100,000 voters decide the 2024 election?
MP
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? (RW version)
S G
US Recession before 2024? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Metaculus BotBot
Will the US 2024 presidential election go the way of the popular vote?
Rémi Rampin
Will Republicans win Pennsylvania, Georgia in the 2024 Presidential?

Johnny Ten-Numbers
Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Nick Heinonen