Musk Mania

Space

Spacex

Science

Technology

Rockets

Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.

Wars

World

Global Macro

Nuclear Risk

Politics

UK politics

Unstable Diffusion

Marvel Cinematic Universe

Oscars 2023

Culture

Entertainment and Pop Culture

Movies

Linear algebraic primitives are at the core of many modern algorithms in
engineering, science, and machine learning. Hence, accelerating these
primitives with novel computing hardware would have tremendous economic impact.
Quantum computing has been proposed for this purpose, although the resource
requirements are far beyond current technological capabilities, so this
approach remains long-term in timescale. Here we consider an alternative
physics-based computing paradigm based on classical thermodynamics, to provide
a near-term approach to accelerating linear algebra.
  At first sight, thermodynamics and linear algebra seem to be unrelated
fields. In this work, we connect solving linear algebra problems to sampling
from the thermodynamic equilibrium distribution of a system of coupled harmonic
oscillators. We present simple thermodynamic algorithms for (1) solving linear
systems of equations, (2) computing matrix inverses, (3) computing matrix
determinants, and (4) solving Lyapunov equations. Under reasonable assumptions,
we rigorously establish asymptotic speedups for our algorithms, relative to
digital methods, that scale linearly in matrix dimension. Our algorithms
exploit thermodynamic principles like ergodicity, entropy, and equilibration,
highlighting the deep connection between these two seemingly distinct fields,
and opening up algebraic applications for thermodynamic computing hardware.

Thermodynamic Linear Algebra

Physics Forecasting

UK policies by the next election

Biotech

Brain–computer interface

Tesla AI Day

Elon musk

Change My Mind

AI Safety

Showcase

Microsoft

🤖 AI

Sam Altman

🤖 OpenAI

🌌 Space

Technical AI Timelines

GPT-4 speculation

Gaming

Culture War

Gary Marcus GPT-4 predictions

Russia

Yevgeney Prigozhin

🖥️ Technology

sama1

OpenAI Crisis

Ed Ayers

Sinquefield Cup Chess Scandal

Chess

This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

Mar 29, 3:40am: Just an update on how this started in the first place in ACXD.
 Date: 02/03/2022
14:45<Honourary> 
Okay so, Skew has stated that he’s handing over the server.
He’s also said that [Redacted] isn’t going to continue.
Yet the replacement Monarch might deem to continue [Redacted] if she sees fit.
So [Redacted] isn’t necessarily dead.
14:47 <chuzz> 
Have we prepared the hunger games so that a worthy successor may take the reins?
14:49 <TheSkeward> 
true!
14:50 <Honourary> 
I don’t actually know the gender of the new Monarch but someone should start a prediction market.
14:51 <TheSkeward> 
set one up on manifold.markets
link it widely around the discord
I will be following it avidly
fortunes could be won or lost

So that's basically how this started and made me sign up and make a profile in the first place.

Jun 9, 5:16pm: I received a notification that the free choice market for the future administrator was resolved, as well as an email notifying me about nfd's bet. I quickly emailed TheSkeward to get confirmation, as I wanted to prevent front-running if an official announcement had been made. After TheSkeward confirmed for me that Zenbu had been picked and that furthermore she had accepted, I logged onto Manifold Markets and resolved the market. 
I acknowledge that the original description  says that it will resolved only after TheSkeward has stepped down and the replacement has taken power, but in hindsight unless there are exigent circumstances I decided that resolving early following the announcement was more honourable than waiting for an official change of command ceremony to be completed and enabling further market distorting front-running of the event to happen. If this premature action was honourable or dishonourable I leave to @Gurkenglas to decide.
On a personal note, this market was made on a whim, as a joke. I never expected it to be one of the largest markets on Manifold, and when I first made it, I thought only fellow members of the ACX Discord would participate. The stuff with Spindle, the large amounts of money injected into the market, the large swings, the derivative market by @Gurkenglas about me resolving Honourably or not, and the final flourish of getting mentioned by Scott Alexander in his Substack was to be honest, a bit of an emotional roller coaster. 
I started this thinking all Prediction Markets are kind of a joke, and finished it with a much greater understanding after going down countless rabbit holes about what they were and how they are valuable to society. I never asked for this, I never expected the responsibility of resolving a 1.5 million M$ market.
This is been quite the learning and growing experience for me. Thanks for everyone who participated and congratulations to Zenbu!

North Korea

Law & Order

After resolution, if I think you did a good enough job of drawing at least one emoji I will resolve YES. Otherwise I will resolve NO.

Jun 9, 1:03pm: To clarify, with the graph above!

Twitter

Please Resolve

Controversial markets

OpenAI

dall-e

Internet

From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest 

Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Predictions on Predictions

Ed Ayers's calibration