Ed Ayers's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ed Ayers bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
10%
30%
50%
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Bing integrate ChatGPT from OpenAI before the end of 2023'Q1?YESṀ35
- Will Neuralink announce they have begun a human trial at their November 30 "show and tell" event?NOṀ25
- Will the average price of a dozen eggs drop below $3.50 in February 2023?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
- Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?NOṀ10
60%
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Elon Musk name a new non-interim CEO of Twitter in 2022?NOṀ10
- Will Ukraine regain control of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ10
70%
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?YESṀ206
- Will any Netflix movie receive an Oscar nomination for Best Picture?YESṀ10
- Will any other executives (other than SBF) be charged with a crime for her involvement with FTX / Alameda Research in 2022?YESṀ10
- Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?YESṀ10
- Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022YESṀ10
80%
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?YESṀ300
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ100
- Will any Netflix movie receive an Oscar nomination for Best Picture?YESṀ90
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ45
- Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM I to write a school paper by June 1st 2023?YESṀ10
- Will Meta announce layoffs by 2023-04-30?YESṀ10
- Will anyone shout "Man, I Fold" while playing poker at the Manifold party?NOṀ10
- Will anyone shout "Man, I Fold" while playing poker at the Manifold party?NOṀ10
90%
95%