Ed Ayers's calibration

Interpretation
  • The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ed Ayers bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
  • Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
  • The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
  • Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
10 largest bets for each bucket