What will be true of xkcd's for September 23rd-September 27th?
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Plus
25
Ṁ9816
resolved Sep 27
Resolved
YES
All letters in every comic will be uppercase
Resolved
YES
There will be at least one comic with no stick figures at all
Resolved
YES
The sum of all the digits appearing in the comics (not the title or title text) is even
Resolved
YES
There will be at least one space-related comic
Resolved
YES
There will be a color other than black or white used (intentional use of gray counts as a distinct color)
Resolved
NO
There will be at least one comic that is a graph/chart
Resolved
NO
Megan will make an appearance
Resolved
NO
Ponytail will make an appearance
Resolved
NO
The comics will have >=5 panels collectively
Resolved
NO
White Hat will make an appearance
Resolved
NO
There will be at least one character that represents an actual person
Resolved
NO
At least one comic will reference the 2024 U.S. Election, or any of its major participants
Resolved
NO
Black Hat will make an appearance
Resolved
NO
Cueball will be in >=2 of the comics

To make things more interesting, I will reopen after the first and second comics to allow people to bet using this new information, as long as there are no questions regarding how one of the questions should resolve.

I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I have time to resolve and the result has become clear. If an answer is potentially ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A based on the possible consensus there.

Others are free to add options. I will delete duplicates and ask regarding resolution criteria for potentially vague options, or questions that I am not sure how to resolve. If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.

I may bet in this market, but do not bet on questions about myself. On debatable questions, I will ask for trader input, and will put my reasoning once I come to a conclusion.

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boughtṀ100The sum of all the d... NO

@Pericles Why do you think the next comic will have an odd sum of digits?

@santiago the odds were too high for the likelihood of the sum of digits being even. I might be wrong, but I thought the odds were closer to 50%.

@Pericles @santiago I have that the current sum is even. So, I would imagine that the likelihood is a little higher than 50% (most comics have at least one digit, and assume that for those that do, it's a coinflip). Odds definitely seemed too high before @Pericles bet, but betting it down to 31% was quite a bit.

@EBurk my reasoning was the same as you (some likelihood of not having digits, 50/50 chance of even/odd if it does have digits), but my calculations from counting how many of the most recent comics had any digits in them came out to around 77% for a single comic to have an even sum (i.e. I counted slightly more comics without digits than with digits; that might only be a recent trend though).

@santiago Fair enough, I’m not sure how far back is the “right amount” to make good predictions.

@EBurk Yeah, I don't know either. Thank you for making these markets by the way, they're really fun :)

Cueball will be in >=2 of the comics

@EBurk Shouldn't this resolve to NO already?

@santiago @traders Sorry, I recently reworded this question from previous markets, so I did resolve this late. I apologize.

@EBurk No worries :)

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