What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024?
resolved May 27
The comic will have exactly one panel
The comic won't have any stick figures at all
The comic will be space-related
Cueball will make an appearance
The comic will be a graph/chart
The comic or title text will reference Memorial Day or the three-day weekend
Megan will make an appearance

I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers to N/A, with the exception of any questions regarding whether or not the xkcd is posted late. If the answer is ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A by the next regular post day based on the possible consensus there.

Others are free to add options. I will delete duplicates and ask regarding resolution criteria for potentially vague options, or questions that I am not sure how to resolve. If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.

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bought Ṁ10 The comic will have ... YES

Btw thanks for continuing to make these :)

@TheAllMemeingEye for the next one, if there is one, it might help keep it fresh if one of the options is a wildcard humorous one that changes each time e.g. all of the letters in the word 'rationalussy' are present somewhere in the comic text

@TheAllMemeingEye Happy to! The only concern I have now is that I don’t see where I’m getting the bonuses for earnings from making these. I will keep making them as long as I can, because as for right now, my net worth isn’t losing too much, so it’s all good

@EBurk I don't know if it applies to multiple choice markets too, but I heard from @Bayesian the other day that for binary markets, the market creator now gets the payout from the shares held in the market liquidity itself, so if it resolves in the opposite direction to the odds at closing, then you actually get more than the market creation cost back :)

@TheAllMemeingEye That could be good. I try to at least throw in some holiday ones when those come around. But I’ll see what I can do. If what you say is true about the payout, maybe I’ll try adding responses in future ones to see what happens.

Right now I’m definitely not going to put a lot of effort into these though, because I have some bigger personal stuff going on in the next month or so.

@EBurk the implication of the change allmemeingeye is referring to, is that you get a lot more of the creation cost back if you close the market before the xkcd comic comes out. basically if you create the question, bring it to the "correct probability" by betting, and then let others trade on it, you will get a bit of fees but in expectation it will not cost anything to run the markets. However if you keep them at 50%, the original person 'taking that liquidity' will profit on the difference between the original probability (50%) and the "correct probability" which may be away from 50%. so basically you are incentivized to set the market price and then close before the result is announced; that minimizes the ultimate costs.

@Bayesian Thank you clarifying, could you explain this: Where does my payout from making and resolving the market show up in my Balance Log?

@EBurk I don't know, but it's possible that it's not showing up there at all; for example I know fees aren't setup to show in the balance log yet. It's a work in progress atm, from what I understand.

@Bayesian That makes sense. Well, for right now, I suppose that I will run the market normally as long as I have the capital, and once I can see that information, make a decision if I need to change how these markets are setup

@Bayesian @TheAllMemeingEye so after resolving the previous market, I got a payout that definitely included the payouts you both were describing. Once I have more time, I’ll try experimenting adding more questions, and checking if I am making at least close to breaking even.