Dylan's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.82
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Dylan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ20
- Will Manifold implement a new loan system?NOṀ20
- Will Destiny start a League of Legends game on stream before March 1st, 2023?NOṀ20
30%
40%
50%
70%
80%
- 🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Make Significantly Better, "Common Sense Judgements About What Happens Next," by End of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by the end of 2024?YESṀ10
- Will my article on AI prediction markets get more than 5,000 views by May 1, 2023?NOṀ10
90%