Dylan Slagh's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.34
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Dylan Slagh bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ300
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ100
- Will the "Will this market's value ever hit 10%?" market resolve YES?NOβαΉ55
20%
30%
40%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ229
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ50
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ50
50%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ995
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ500
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ350
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
99%
- Will anyone use my ThriftBooks signup link and spend $30 dollars on used books, netting us each a free book? (ROUND 3)YESβαΉ5,000
- Will anyone use my ThriftBooks signup link and spend $30 dollars on used books, netting us each a free book? (ROUND 3)YESβαΉ5,000
- This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 10k NO shares at closeYESβαΉ3,378