DwemerPrince's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.81
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when DwemerPrince bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Vaush's video "4 AND A HALF HOURS OF PURE DEBATE | President Sunday vs Infrar" reach 60k views by 3/20 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ100
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- Will Destiny's clip "“Women Are Too Powerful” Blue Pilled Viewer Is Having Doubts" reach 25k views by 3/18 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ100
95%
97%