There's a 70% chance this question will close with a yes.
resolved Sep 27

in a week, i will use this JavaScript code to choose whether to resolve as 'yes' or 'no':

CHOICE = Math.random()>0.3?"Yes":"No";
Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will this question resolve above 50%?
4mur1c4 avatar4mur1c4
50% chance
Will this question close above 50%?
SimonVana avatarSimon Vana
50% chance
Will this question close below 57%?
TundraXD avatarTundra XD
56% chance
Will this question close above 70%?
ZalenZed avatarZalen Zed
47% chance
Will the CSU get more than 42%?
marktweise avatarMarktweise
18% chance
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
NathanpmYoung avatarNathan Young
66% chance
Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?
cash avatarcshunter
71% chance
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
EA42 avatarEmbedded Agent
29% chance
Will this question have a lower than 90% chance of resolving to "yes" when it closes?
lukres avatarlukres
88% chance
Can this question remain open indefinitely?
FranekZak avatarFranek Żak
10% chance
Will the first option submitted in a free response question start out at <50% before the end of October?
JosephNoonan avatarPlasma Ballin'
32% chance
Will this question have a percentage <50% after one day?
DieterRasse avatarDieter Rasse
56% chance
What percentage of people will believe in god on the next poll by Gallup International?
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
vluzko avatarVincent Luczkow
81% chance
Will somebody clone this question?
MrLuke255 avatarMrLuke255
85% chance
Will the running prediction go below 50% for at least 24 hours?
a11ce avatarsophia
50% chance
What percentage of movies nominated for best picture will be options in the linked market? (read description)
DylanSlagh avatarDylan Slagh
59% chance
What % of alignment forum karma will be pro-interpetability vs anti this year?
Jono3h avatarJono
73% chance
Will 100 or more people bet on this question?
TobiasSowaaed avatarTobias Sowaaed
98% chance
(Poll) Will this resolve to the first or second option of a yet-to-be-made poll?
Stralor avatarPat Scott🩴
80% chance

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
Dvorakgigachad avatar
Dvorak gigachad

the answer is: no