How many states will vote at least 25% for Trump in the 2024 election?

When the 2024 Presidential election results are counted, how many states will Trump have 25% or more of the total votes for that state?

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This seems like "will Trump be the R nominee", since it's likely to be 50 is he is and 0 otherwise.

predicts LOWER

@ShakedKoplewitz I don’t agree. It’s entirely possible he becomes a 3rd party or independent candidate if not the Republican nominee. It’s very likely that he would receive more than 25% of the vote in some places if that were to happen.

@Dustin That is not really true. If the GOP primary goes all the way to a contested convention and he stays in to the end he can't run on a third party ticket unless he was literally do both the entire time.

predicts HIGHER

@ShakedKoplewitz That’s not necessarily the case. With the good chance of unusual performance for independent candidates, it’s quite possible that Trump falls short of 25% in Vermont, Massachusetts, or Maryland.