Will there be any surprise world events flipping an end-of-2022 market?
136
180
2k
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
YES

Before the 31st, will any market that refers to a large event outside of Manifold Markets and is currently considered more-or-less determined flip? E.g., will a nuclear weapon be tested, Putin disposed, or will RealDonaldTrump tweet this year?

This market will resolve YES if someone posts in the comments an example of a qualifying market that was at either 90% or 10% (YES or NO) as of today (December 24th), and due to an undexpected event before or on the 31st, flips to the inverse.

I will use my judgement, and obvious manipulation -- e.g., posting a "Will aliens land in 2022" market, buying it up to 90%, then buying it down to 10% -- will be disqualified.

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

Once again a market was solved YES. I just created the same market again.

predicted YES

Same market, but starting as of today, December 29th.

predicted YES

Given the sheer number of such markets this was an easy bet.

What qualifies as more-or-less determined? A Twitter outage occurring might not be so clear cut, considering everything going on there.

sold Ṁ295 of YES

@Yoav It was a market settled down into the 5% range, that inverted before end of year, which passes at least to my eye the 10% -> 90% inversion rule provided in the market description.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@EdwardKmett It depends whether being more-or-less determined is required for a “qualifying market” referred to in the description and I think it is, since otherwise any market of questionable certainty could pass that test by passing the thresholds and go against the spirit of the question.

bought Ṁ300 of YES

@Yoav That was a market of Ṁ152,019 total volume with 649 different traders on it. It wasn't like one user pumped and dumped the market. As of December 24th (the qualifying cut off date), it was below 4% (well below the 10% cutoff) and stayed stable until the rather specific event it was predicting occurred. If that market doesn't pass muster I don't know that ANY market would pass muster.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

This now seems resolvable YES.

predicted YES

One to keep an eye on:

bought Ṁ763 of YES

@NcyRocks just solved the market

Does it count if research turns up an event that already happened, but hadn't been priced in to the market, and that flips the market?

predicted YES

@Multicore yes, according to the 10-90% rule

@Multicore Yes, MP is correct.

This market will resolve YES if someone posts in the comments an example of a qualifying market that was at either 90% or 10% (YES or NO) as of today (December 24th), and due to an undexpected event before or on the 31st, flips to the inverse.

You mean ≥ 90% or ≤ 10%, right?

@StevenK Yes - 90% or higher flipping to 10% or lower, or vice versa.

bought Ṁ6 of YES

Betting here because I have significant Mana on these markets

How many markets like that there are?