Will 50 Americans have been confirmed to have been cured of thalassemia through gene therapy by the end of 2024?
Basic
6
Ṁ75Jan 1
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Bluebird bio recently got FDA approval for their gene therapy to treat patients with beta thalassemia who require regular red blood cell transfusions. They have worked out a payment system with American health care providers, and they are currently setting up treatment centers. It appears that the process has worked in about 40 individuals, but all in overseas clinical trials, with the success rate being 89% for transfusion independence 12 months after the trial.
This market will resolve YES if at least 50 Americans have been confirmed to be transfusion independent for 12 months after receiving gene therapy treatment, from any provider.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Can we cure at least one autoimmune disease in humans by 2028?
50% chance
By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?
Will Type 1 Diabetes be cured by the end of 2040?
48% chance
Will a cure that eradicated over 50% of cancer tumors without significant adverse side effects be found before 2050?
55% chance
Will gene editing have cured at least one major disease by 2025?
95% chance
will the newly-FDA-approved treatments for Sickle Cell Disease be accessible by EOY 2025?
67% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 10 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
76% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
33% chance
Will we have gene therapy for a major strain of Crohn's disease by 2030?
26% chance
Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2027?
36% chance