Duncn's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.49
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Duncn bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
- Will there be a new SARS-COV2 variant by mid-2023 against which 3 doses of Pfizer's BNT162b2 barely reduces death rates?NOṀ100
- 24. Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?NOṀ29
- 24. Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?NOṀ25
30%
40%
50%
- Will any municipality in the United States implement a mask mandate by the end of 2023?NOṀ100
- Will "What We Owe The Future", by Will MacAskill, reach a top 10 position on any large US bestseller list within a month of launch?YESṀ100
- Will my randomly generated five digit number include at least one 7 in it?YESṀ57
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- I just ate 7 jelly bean flavors: toasted marshmallow, sizzling cinnamon, buttered popcorn, pink grapefruit, strawberry punch, pineapple dream, wild blackberry. Market resolves YES if anyone guesses which I liked the most/least.YESṀ500
- Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?YESṀ150
- Will I still have all my limbs by the end of June?YESṀ100
97%
- Before January 15th, 2022, will Mantic Markets implement a limit on trading markets once they’ve passed their stated resolution date?YESṀ899
- Will at least $200 be bet on 'yes' in the "Will aliens land before March 2022?" market?YESṀ467
- Will this not-very-nice comment be deleted by the end of March?YESṀ300