Duncan avatar
Duncan
closes Jan 1, 2025
Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?
71%
chance

Will any of the four big chains carry a pizza with vegan crust, sauce, and cheese available in most of their locations by the end of December 2024?

The big four chains are currently Dominoes, Pizza Hut, Little Caesar's, and Papa John's; if a new pizza place knocks one of these out of the top four, the new chain will be eligible to resolve this as YES if it offers an eligible pizza.

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HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunberg
bought Ṁ50 of NO

Will we actually get good enough data on this? Is there a good source for estimating the current situation?
Anyway, it doesn't seem at all unlikely but I believe there are enough rural stores that are highly unlikely to get this anytime soon.

Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 74%

@HenriThunberg I've generally found that the US vegan community is pretty good at mapping out what's available where.

As far as rural locations are concerned, my guess is that the most likely solution is a chain using an already existing vegan crust and sauce with frozen Diaya cheese (or similar), so there doesn't need to be much in the way of added costs for a rural location -- and rural locations are also more likely to grab a big chunk of the local vegan market with any offering provided.

NicoDelon avatar
Nicolas Delon
is predicting YES at 74%

@Duncan Every Burger King in the country serves Impossible burgers. Dayia is available in most grocery stores in even rural areas. There's no reason to think a major national chain could not use a widely available vegan cheese brand.

NickelChen avatar
Nick el Chen
bought Ṁ10 of YES

It seems really odd to me that it isn't already. Domino's has vegan pizza for years already in Germany.

Odoacre avatar

Does the pizza need to have cheese substitute to count? Is a cheeseless vegan pizza good enough?

Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 81%

@Odoacre It does need a cheese substitute, but the substitute does not need to be of a quality that it would definitely pass for 'real' cheese in a blind taste test.

Odoacre avatar

@Duncan any reason you are insisting on the presence of cheese? Can I change your mind somehow? Pizza does not need to have cheese to be pizza

Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 76%

@Odoacre I am insisting on the presence of cheese because it was stated that the pizza needed cheese in the original description, and lots of people have placed bets under the assumption that it was required. I'm not a super supporter of the idea that pizza needs cheese, but it's a bit late to change now.

NicoDelon avatar
Nicolas Delon
is predicting YES at 76%

@Duncan I also think it’s in the spirit of ‘vegan pizza’ at a large national chain. You want their regular offering but vegan.

KCS avatar
KCS
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Just hedging

NicoDelon avatar
Nicolas Delon
is predicting YES at 80%

As far as I can see, cheese is the limiting resource. Most chains now offer at least one kind of vegan crust and some of them offer some kind of plant based meat (Little Caesar and Pizza Hut). Vegan cheese is available at many non-top chains so I wouldn’t be surprised if this caught on fairly soon. Though I’m still amazed that Starbucks basically still doesn’t offer anything vegan to eat.

Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 80%

@NicoDelon Cheese is definitely the big barrier. To resolve YES, the pizza in question does not have to have any form of mock-meat.

NicoDelon avatar
Nicolas Delon
bought Ṁ25 of YES

@Duncan Yes, didn’t mean to suggest meat was part of the resolution criteria. It just goes to suggest that they might cast the net wider, beyond vegetarians and flexitarians.

Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 80%

@NicoDelon Yes - the Daiya pizzas are both vegan and gluten free, picking up two growing markets in one product.

BenjiHorwell avatar
Benji Horwell
is predicting YES at 80%

How commonly are we talking here? If a fully vegan pizza was commonly available in a few major US cities (NYC, San Fran and LA, for example), but not really that much elsewhere, would that count?

Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 80%

@BenjiHorwell Nope - most of their locations means, broadly, if you go to a Pizza Hut you can reasonably expect to find vegan pizza, without having to Google which cities have it. However, if the exact data is available, I will resolve YES if 51% of the chain's locations in the US offer a vegan pizza.

A avatar
A

To resolve yes it needs to be a permanent menu item not just a short duration promo/experiment right?

Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 65%

@A I'd certainly resolve this as YES for an experiment that was in place nationwide at the resolve date, under the assumption that any new menu item is an experiment, and that the point of the experiment would be to make it permanent if the experiment was a success.

However, I hadn't considered the possibility of a chain saying "we're doing this for two weeks, then it goes away"; that seems very low-probability, since you can't get new vegan customers to stick around if you take away the vegan option.

I /think/ I should count a New Year's Special vegan pizza as a valid YES resolution, although a very unlikely edge case. I am open to thoughts on this; the spirit of the question is that I, you, or pretty much anyone else (in the USA) should be able to access the pizza in question, and if it's available for just one day, that's a pretty limited interpretation of commonly available. But at the same time, the question does specify "by the end of 2024", and New Year's Eve is a reasonable interpretation of "by the end of 2024".

However, if you simply mean the case of a vegan pizza being introduced next month, failing quickly, and no longer being available at the end of 2024, that would resolve as a NO.

A avatar
A
is predicting NO at 65%

@Duncan Okay thanks, so sounds like the keys definition is that it needs to be still available at the end of 2024, not just for some brief period prior to then.

Cameron avatar
Cameron
is predicting YES at 61%

How will this not resolve yes, veganism seems so probably in the US, also most locations = the majority? we should be lobbying to make this happen!