Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the United States of America has used the defect strategy in the ASI race before January 1st 2040.
Definitions
ASI race: A multi-actor (state or alliance) competition to achieve Artificial Superintelligence (systems substantially surpassing the best humans across most economically valuable domains).
Defect strategy (operational): A deliberate US government action that materially pursues unilateral ASI capability advantage by departing from cooperative commitments or norms intended to reduce global AI-risk or coordinate development pace/safety—e.g., reneging on, undermining, or covertly violating an AI/ASI-relevant agreement, pause, ceiling, or verification regime; or conducting acknowledged/coherently evidenced offensive operations to hinder others’ ASI efforts.
What counts as “United States of America”
Federal government actions: statutes, executive orders/presidential directives, agency rules/guidance, declassified/acknowledged intelligence or military operations, treaty positions, or official funding/authorization choices.
Actions of US-based private entities count only if they were directed, authorized, or knowingly enabled as part of a government strategy (e.g., via explicit mandate/contract/operation).
Evidence threshold (“strong evidence”)
At least one of:
An official US document or on-the-record acknowledgement;
A declassification, court filing, IG report, or legislative report;
A determination or investigation by a reputable international body;
Corroborated investigative reporting from 2+ high-credibility outlets with named sources and documentary evidence.
Ambiguous single-source leaks or opinion pieces are insufficient.
YES example scenarios (illustrative, not exhaustive)
The US signs a multilateral AI-cap/compute cap/pause agreement and later violates or secretly circumvents it to accelerate ASI.
A declassified or officially acknowledged operation to sabotage or exfiltrate another nation’s ASI program to gain first-mover advantage.
The US publicly commits to an ASI-relevant moratorium/limit, while documents later show a covert program continued in parallel to get ahead.
NO / does not count
Generic “race” rhetoric, campaign statements, or strategy papers without concrete actions.
Routine domestic R&D funding or safety standards not tied to breaching cooperation.
Actions primarily about non-AI domains, or AI policies that are plausibly cooperative (e.g., joint safety evaluations) rather than defections.
Independent actions by private firms without government direction/authorization.
Alliances & coalitions
If a US-led alliance defects as an alliance from a cooperative commitment and the US is a primary driver, this can count. If another ally defects and the US remains compliant, this does not count.
Timing & resolution
The qualifying action must occur before 2040-01-01. Evidence may emerge later; the market will resolve when the above “strong evidence” standard is met.
Preferred sources for resolution are official documents and public acknowledgments; investigative reporting is acceptable if it meets the threshold above.
If evidence is conflicting, I will weigh source quality, corroboration, and specificity. I may delay resolution until clarity is available.
Notes
This market is about defection from cooperation in pursuit of ASI advantage, not about whether ASI itself is achieved by 2040.
I will provide citations at resolution and allow a brief comment window for challenges before finalizing.
1,000