🏅 Top traders

Emmett's further tweeting today indicates he is no longer the interim CEO, and he is also doing absolutely nothing to disabuse anyone of the notion that he is gone.

I've seen 0 evidence that "No" is technically correct when it comes to Emmett being gone. There's lots of conjecture that it could be correct as a result of Sam's status being a bit in limbo. If the market was Sam being the CEO by Thanksgiving, it'd be a No at this point. But it was about leadership changes, and we have widespread and strong evidence that the leadership has changed.

It went from a Emmett-helmed company on Monday morning, EST, when the market was created, to a situation where Sam is leading either officially or unofficially, and a situation where Emmett has indicated over and over (yes some via jokes!) he is no longer affiliated with OpenAI. Yes wins, congrats!

The market whether Sam will be the CEO by November end is still not resolved, and is less than 90% as i write

@firstuserhere Yeah for sure, I think Sam's return is more tenuous than Emmett's departure.

@Domer agreed

Oh look rules fighting. Butchered market. 😘

I quote the description

Significant leadership changes includes JUST the following:

• the interim CEO being replaced,

• the interim CEO promoted to full-time CEO,

• a co-CEO being added,

• a board member leaving, or

• a board member being added

Board members who are added but have no voting power will NOT count

I want to ask for clarity, Which of these has happened between start and end times to warrant a yes resolution?

@firstuserhere interim CEO seems to be gone. But we don't have full knowledge of it bc no official announcements, and we have to use context clues given hard deadline.

@Domer If we have OpenAI announce a post saying that Sam resumed his duties from 21st for example, it'll be perfectly clear and that's why I think it's good to let more information trickle in to reduce the uncertainty instead of inferring it already

Aorn I'll be expiring yes, but I sent a couple of notes out to ask and will try and get actual verification 👍 Short of that, yeah he is joking I guess, but also even the jokes kind of stand. He is the source on himself. And even if he is still "CEO", seems like there is 0 power associated with it. OpenAI employees were partying with Altman at HQ. To them, there was a leadership change. Unless I get info to contrary shortly, yes will win.

@Domer (also, to save you a click, I own 4 shares of yes, definitely not an influence lol)

@Domer Verification would be good! I don't have any shares here, but if I did I'd be objecting pretty strongly to this reasoning (which: I guess I'm doing anyway). I imagine we'll find out pretty soon when it becomes official that Sam is CEO, and the fact that we haven't found out yet to me points pretty strongly to Sam not being CEO yet.

Although us actually finding out who was CEO as of exactly when might be problematic, the actual concept is unambiguous - someone is either CEO or not at a given point in time. The market shouldn't need to be resolved on who employees were partying with unless additional info isn't forthcoming within a reasonable time.

And jokes shouldn't hold any weight, surely.

@chrisjbillington The question is about significant leadership changes at OpenAI, not official announcements. That Sam isn't officially CEO yet (probably) is important! But not determinative. Requires investigation IMHO.

And the investigation is that (1) a new person is acting and being recognized by employees as the new leader, and (2) the other guy is making self deprecating jokes on Twitter about being out and not seeming to hold any power anymore, AND (3) the OpenAI official Twitter account is posting the party at HQ that I talked about. All of that in combination is extremely strong evidence that the leadership of the company has significantly changed.

I haven't closed the door on No, but it's looking bleak.

@Domer Agreed it's about official leadership changes regardless of when they're announced - but my priors are high that they'd be celebrating like this based on the "in principle" agreement that they will reinstate Sam, so I don't see the partying as strong evidence of an official change having actually happened yet.

@Domer I think the phrasing "altered in any way" allows this interpretation and is why I bought yes.

@chrisjbillington I mention the party because it was at the headquarters! This is not some random gathering. And the headquarters party was posted by the official OpenAI account! To me, this is very strong evidence that the employees of the company would answer the 'Was there a significant leadership change before Thanksgiving?" question with a yes.

The only breathing room for No is on a technicality. And I'm investigating that, but aorn I think the technicality is probably also incorrect. Shear seems to me to be gone, but we don't have 100 percent evidence for it.

@Domer it’s not only Shear gone. Half the board is.

But also, as far as I know, there was never an official announcement that Shear was actually interim CEO. It was only reporting. By that same standard, there have been several reporting of leadership changes before the deadline.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-sam-altman-returns.html

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau The Board I think is in the same place as Sam, so I think technically they're probably not in place yet? But maybe they are! It's all very murky, so I don't know for certain. Point taken on the NYT article, which talks about things very definitively. And they've got great reporters. I think from a technical rules standpoint, Emmett's position is the likeliest to have met the criteria. And obviously I agree that his tweet reads like a bit of a joke, and his bio reads like a little bit less of a joke but also poking fun at himself. What we simply do not have is any proof that Emmett still actually holds the position. We only have lots of circumstantial evidence that he does not.

I actually reached out to Emmett, and its a holiday, so I'll wait until around noon PST and then expire this for yes unless I get any sort of positive proof whatsoever that "No" is the technically correct answer. Anyone feel free to post any you find!

@Domer What is the rush to resolve? Emmett might answer tomorrow or whatever, taking a well deserved break for the holiday :P

@WilliamEden the funny bit would be if Sam also takes a break with the thanksgiving, all the stress and sleepless nights this week, and what not, and start his new job from December 1

@firstuserhere IMO all of these markets are underrating how long going from “in principle” agreement to signed contracts can take. These agreements are always underspecified in business, especially if they’re negotiating something complex like a whole new board/corporate structure as a condition. The long shot No for 12/1 is a good bet I think? But then bad resolution of these markets kills that :-/

Can we get a ruling on this? Emmett Shear is no longer CEO.

that bio is entirely compatible with him still holding the official title of interim ceo, and planning to leave as soon as possible! it is a joke.

can be resolved (interim CEO steps down and is replaced)

@dittopoop I agree this resolves yes but there does seem to be some silent disagreement? I think this was unambiguously "any of the very top level leadership being altered in any way".

@Domer can we get a ruling?

@Joshua No clue how true to speedrunning conventions this joke tweet is likely to be, but FWIW, speed run times are measured up until the player provides the last input, even if many cutscenes are yet to play out and the boss isn't dead yet or whatever.

If there were competive CEO speed runs, then if he needs to sign a resignation, an official speed run wouldn't end until he had. But if he doesn't need to do anything, the speed run would be over whenever he took his last action even if he was legally CEO for a time thereafter.

(Edit: and you could sign a resignation that doesn't take effect yet, of course)

(Edit: for the record I pray that resolution has nothing to do with any of this reasoning)

@Joshua Am traveling, will look at this in a bit

@Domer Will wait for deadline given my current understanding of info. Think Emmett's bio change is the most compelling evidence aorn.

@Domer I'm unsure myself at this point, is there an analogy to be drawn to the kalshi markets that resolved early?