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I used my winnings to subsidize a new market, which I tried to make more in line with what people thought this market should have been.

https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-2084a9819b66?r=Tmlja0FsbGVu

Btw if the market creator wants to, he can actually reverse his decision by @ a mod.

@johnleoks given that he didn't define politician tightly the resolution was technically correct. The best kind of correct!

I assume this is national politician? Or should it already have resolved "yes" twice over?

https://truthpress.com/news/another-republican-politician-has-been-shot-and-killed-in-new-jersey/

@NickAllen Is that an assassination (political murder) or just a regular homicide that impacted a local politician?

@Nostradamnedus I think when there's 2 back to back like this the burden of proof would be on whoever thinks the political aspect is unrelated.

@NickAllen I don't think that's how the burden of proof works.

yes, and there are 500,000 politicians in the US. given a 6.6 murder rate per 100k in 2020, we would expect 33 politicians to be murdered. The odds that not a single one would be murdered are 0.00000000000046%.

@Nostradamnedus politicians’ reference class is professional/managerial not general public

@Nostradamnedus explain?

@SemioticRivalry right, so the poor definition of the question is highly relevant. See my comment earlier. Are we only taking about Congress, the Veep, and POTUS here?

@NickAllen yeah I sold because of unclear resolution criteria

@NickAllen This should be resolved. Thanks for sharing the news.

@DodgerPaschall Should it? The article says that their motives are still being investigated. Like if it comes out that the guy slept with his wife and that's why he killed him would you still resolve this yes?

@DodgerPaschall It should not be resolved?? There’s no evidence this was a political assassination?

yeah this is questionable

https://www.wtae.com/article/pa-house-candidate-fayette-county-assaulted/41823914

even if this is an assassination attempt, do statehouse members really count? there's 5,000 of them and the vast majority of people have no idea who theirs is

@PatMyron That doesn't appear to be an assassination attempt. The politician was knocked out and could have easily been killed thereafter if the intent was to murder.

Should I resolve this as N/A?

@DodgerPaschall

Why? Is 2023 over?

@TANSTAAFL Whoops. I shall wait.

@DodgerPaschall You should probably reopen the market by clicking the date at the top.

@jack Thank you!

I disavow all theories about Paul Pelosi telling police it was his “friend” in the home, answering the door for police, and about why none of the security camera footage is being released to police.

All such rumors are unsubstantiated and whatever goes on in the Pelosi home is a private matter or matter of national security or something

(lovers’ quarrel, too many bath salts by his rentboy, or break-in with outward shattered glass, all the same)

@Gigacasting Make a market next time