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Mom told me Biden said announcement Sunday, love you mom

@DismalScientist resolves July 21st.

Also as a feature request... would be great to be able to bet on an OR of options in one bet. That would make this market 5x as appealing I think. If you could do it like an airline query... will he drop out -- within X to Y date range

There are numerical markets, they do exactly that. Can bet on values or on ranges.

Don't have to create an entry for each date, just "How many days after debate will Biden drop out?".

Can we get more subsidies in this market? Kind of sucks that 33 mana bets move the market so much...

NYT: One factor that may stretch out a decision: Advisers believe that Mr. Biden would not want to do it before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel visits Washington on Wednesday at the initiative of Republicans to address Congress, unwilling to give the premier the satisfaction given their strained relations lately over the Gaza war.

Hedging against https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec

Just to be sure: Joe Biden dying without formally dropping out counts as "dropping out" for the purposes of this market, right?

Based on the way this is written I would say no, that would count as him not dropping out.

Why would Biden drop out on July 15? That seems nonsensical.

If I were him, why not let the Republicans waste four days of earned media attacking me, and then drop out and all the attacks are wasted?

maybe people think he will during this interview but other that im not sure why, it seems way too high.

Please resolve all days before July 8 to no.

On dependent MC it’s impossible to resolve individual options early

Oh, damn

What if he doesn't want to step down but is removed via 25th Amendment or by the DNC? Does that invalidate this market or does it resolve as the date that happens?

Resolves on the date that happens

25th Amendment is about his current term as President, that's separate from whether he's running in the upcoming election.

@DismalScientist What's the significance of July 12?

@DismalScientist Surely you mean "on the specified day" rather than "by the specified time"? Seeing as how the choices are linked...

Yes, just updated

It's either this week or never.

Can we start resolving days as NO?

I just tried to do this but could not figure out how to. Are you sure this is possible?

What if die?

If you die this market should be your last concern :)

Thank you for your response. What if Biden dies?

I would count that as dropping out