Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup concedes 5 or fewer total goals across all official matches in the tournament. It will resolve to NO otherwise.

• Matches included: All official group stage and knockout matches played by the winning team during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

• Definition of "goals conceded": This includes all goals scored against the champion during regulation time (including injury/stoppage time) and extra time.

  • Own goals scored by the champion count as goals conceded.

  • Goals scored against the champion during penalty shootouts do not count.

• Source of truth: Official match reports and statistics published on the FIFA World Cup 2026 Official Site. The official PDF match reports published on the FIFA Match Report Hub will be used as the primary source of truth.

Background

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition to feature 48 teams, an expansion from the 32-team format used between 1998 and 2022. Under this expanded format, the champion must play a total of 8 matches (3 group stage matches and 5 knockout matches) to win the title, compared to 7 matches in previous editions.

Historically, World Cup winners have relied on exceptionally strong defensive records. France (1998), Italy (2006), and Spain (2010) jointly hold the record for the fewest goals conceded by a tournament champion, with each allowing only 2 goals across their respective campaigns. France (2018) and Argentina (2022) are the two most recent champions and conceded more than 5 goals in their winning tournaments, allowing 6 and 8 goals respectively across their campaigns.