Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the highest guaranteed transfer fee paid for a professional football (soccer) player during the 2026 calendar year, ending on December 31, 2026.

• Fee Definition: Only fixed, guaranteed transfer fees count. Performance-based add-ons, bonuses, or loan fees are excluded unless the loan agreement includes a mandatory purchase clause triggered within the 2026 calendar year.

• Resolution Source: Resolution will be determined by the consensus of reputable sports media and data outlets, but primarily Transfermarkt will be considered. In the event of conflicting reports, the fee reported by the majority of outlets or the official confirmation from the buying/selling clubs will be used.

• Outcome: This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each answer option represents a threshold. If the highest transfer fee of the year is X, all options "Y or above" where Y ≤ X will resolve to YES. All options "Y or above" where Y > X will resolve to NO. The option "Less than €80 million" resolves to YES only if no transfer fee exceeds or equals €80 million.

Background

The global football transfer market is governed by FIFA regulations and operates primarily within two registration windows (typically winter and summer). Historical records for transfer fees are tracked by specialized databases like Transfermarkt. As of creation of this market, the transfer of Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City for a transfer fee of €72.0 million is the highest fee of 2026.