How many Yea votes in the Senate by May 16 to begin reconciliation?
3
100Ṁ31
Jun 2
8%
48 or fewer
8%
49
8%
50
8%
51
18%
52
19%
53
8%
54
8%
55
8%
56
8%
57 or more

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the United States Senate who, subsequent to the launch of this market on February 11, 2025, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of a budget resolution that begins the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.

Should more than one such vote be held, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "48 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "56 or more" shall resolve as Yes.

The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.

End Date: 05/16/2025 11:59 PM (ET)

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