DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
closes in 8 hours
This market will resolve to the average number of shares every user has
40%
chance

Ex. 3 people buy shares on this market. x buys 10 shares, y buys 4 shares, and z buys 50 shares. Independant on the type of share they bought I will average it out. resulting in an average of 21.3 (21), I will then resolve to that as a percentage (21%). I will round the final number to the nearest whole number. I'm not sure how well this will work, so I'm just experimenting. Important: if the average is above 100 I'll divide the average by 10 until it's inbetween 1-100, this is prevent someone from buying like 1000 yes shares, and immediately resolving the market yes.

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StanPinsent avatar
Stan Pinsent
bought Ṁ80 of NO

If whales pile in in the final hours, Benford's law suggests the first digit of the average number of shares is likeliest to be 1, 2 or 3. Hence NO is a far safer position if the av goes above 100 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
is predicting YES at 36%

currently 455 shares held by 10 people, giving average = 45.5, and market is trading at 45%. That's nice and satisfying to see

Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Just wait till the Whales join in, buy a lot of shares, the price is driven very close to yes, the whales exit with massive profit, the average number of shares drop and the market resolves NO

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilson
bought Ṁ60 of NO

Are you counting bot positions as users when you resolve?

Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
bought Ṁ20 of YES

@MattCWilson why not

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
is predicting NO at 52%

@MattCWilson yes I am

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilson
is predicting NO at 57%

@Dreamingpast just a terminology check, to make sure I'm doing the same math that @DesTiny and everyone else is doing. For instance, I noticed your other comment used the word "people" and so I want to make sure we all have a shared understanding.

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
is predicting NO at 57%

@MattCWilson yep any active shares on the market will be taken into account