Ex. 3 people buy shares on this market. x buys 10 shares, y buys 4 shares, and z buys 50 shares. Independant on the type of share they bought I will average it out. resulting in an average of 21.3 (21), I will then resolve to that as a percentage (21%). I will round the final number to the nearest whole number. I'm not sure how well this will work, so I'm just experimenting. Important: if the average is above 100 I'll divide the average by 10 until it's inbetween 1-100, this is prevent someone from buying like 1000 yes shares, and immediately resolving the market yes.
If whales pile in in the final hours, Benford's law suggests the first digit of the average number of shares is likeliest to be 1, 2 or 3. Hence NO is a far safer position if the av goes above 100 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law
currently 455 shares held by 10 people, giving average = 45.5, and market is trading at 45%. That's nice and satisfying to see
Just wait till the Whales join in, buy a lot of shares, the price is driven very close to yes, the whales exit with massive profit, the average number of shares drop and the market resolves NO
@Dreamingpast just a terminology check, to make sure I'm doing the same math that @DesTiny and everyone else is doing. For instance, I noticed your other comment used the word "people" and so I want to make sure we all have a shared understanding.
