Joey Y's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -14.16
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Joey Y bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
- 9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?NOṀ10
- 9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?NOṀ10
- 9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?NOṀ10
20%
30%
- Will the main LK-99 market close between 35% and 40% on August 7th?NOṀ40
- Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?NOṀ10
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%