Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2039, a major economy (defined as a member of the G7) officially designates a cryptocurrency as legal tender to the extent that it replaces its national fiat currency for general economic transactions. If national fiat currencies remain the primary medium of exchange in all G7 nations, the market will resolve to "No."

Resolution will be based on official announcements and legislative actions from the central banks or government authorities of G7 nations.

Background

The debate over whether cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or decentralized stablecoins, will replace fiat money centers on issues of scalability, volatility, regulatory acceptance, and the role of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). While some nations, such as El Salvador, have adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, mainstream economic consensus currently views cryptocurrencies primarily as alternative assets rather than replacements for sovereign fiat currencies. Many central banks are actively developing their own CBDCs, which are digital forms of fiat currency, rather than adopting existing cryptocurrencies.

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