Which of the following political scenarios will be true in the following 2024 US Presidential elections?
Nov 5
NYT: Trump 48%, Biden: 43%, Refused: 10%
NYT: Trump 48%, Biden: 43%, Refused: 10%
Aggregation of polls: Trump 47.6% - Biden 45.8%
Aggregation of polls: Trump 47.4% - Biden 45.7%
Trump will lose the popular vote but be elected president
Trump will win the popular vote and be elected president
Trump will lose the popular vote and lose the presidency
Trump will win the popular vote but lose the presidency

Will the next us president also win the popular vote?

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Why do people think it is so unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote when he's ahead in the polls?

Not really representative, but I found it interesting.

Emerson collage (5/6 march):
Trump - 49%

Biden - 51%

Emerson collage (5/6 march):

Biden - 42%

Trump - 43%

Kennedy - 6%

West - 2%

Stein - 1%

Trump will win the popular vote but lose the presidency

It's plausible the entire Rust Belt is now more blue than the national popular vote. Trump's gains have been disproportionately among nonwhite voters, and these states are very white. Still unlikely, but not impossible.

@SaviorofPlant Do you think the Uncommitted voters in Michigan and Minnesota will still turn out for Biden? I guess maybe if he manages to arrange a ceasefire in Gaza?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Both of those states were bluer than Wisconsin / Pennsylvania in 2020, so they can shift right to some extent and this scenario can still happen.

I find this probabilities very Interesting

opened a Ṁ690 Trump will lose the ... YES at 43% order

Suggestion: Change the colors of the options where Trump loses to a shade of blue, and the options where Trump wins to a shade of red or orange. I think it helps attract bettors

@Tumbles Did not think of that, Thanks!

People really don’t think Trump is going to win… lots of copium

@DavideBerweger I'm worried that there are still people who support him, and that some EC polls have shown him with a lead, but I think there's room for optimism overall:

  1. Trump had the lowest approval rating of any President on record throughout most of his term, and that was before he tanked it with the election lies and violent attack on the US Capitol.

  2. Trump caused Roe v Wade to be overturned, which is immensely unpopular and has cost Republicans elections across the country.

  3. 53% majority of the country currently dislikes him and

  4. 54% majority agree with removing him from the ballot for Jan 6th

  5. The polls that show Trump in the lead still have ~10% of "Undecided" voters, and Trump's supporters are very strongly committed to him already, while likely Biden voters are lukewarm and more likely to be in the "undecided" camp. "When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Biden’s overall support increases"

  6. It's likely that the Supreme Court will not rule that Trump is above the law

  7. and that the Jan 6th case will then happen before the election

  8. and polls show that Trump's chances will be hurt by criminal convictions.

  9. It's 50/50 whether he will actually be convicted, but I think the renewed focus and testimony about the facts of Jan 6th will discredit the right-wing spin about it being "a peaceful tour" or whatever and will not be good for his ratings.

bought Ṁ10 Trump will lose the ... NO

arbitrage my old friend,

I'm come to use you once again

@Pykess There is really a big spread between this market and the Manifold official one. Interesting.

Trump will win the popular vote but lose the presidency

lol I wish