David Mathers's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.27
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when David Mathers bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will any of these 7 movies *not* be nominated for Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars? Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, TAR, Avatar: The Way of Water, ElvisNOṀ70
- Will any of these 7 movies *not* be nominated for Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars? Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, TAR, Avatar: The Way of Water, ElvisNOṀ43
- Will any of these 7 movies *not* be nominated for Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars? Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, TAR, Avatar: The Way of Water, ElvisNOṀ20
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%