This market predicts how many of the three specific friend responses will occur when they are invited to a social gathering before December 15, 2025.

Resolution Criteria:

• The market will resolve to the number (0, 1, 2, or 3) of the following responses that occur:

  1. Ben makes a funny comment when invited

  2. Tim declines without giving a reason

  3. Isabelle mentions being busy with her sisters

• Each person must receive at least one invitation to a social gathering before the close date for their response to be counted.

• If any of the three individuals does not receive an invitation before the close date, their predicted response will be counted as not occurring (contributing 0 to the total).

Research on social behavior patterns suggests that people tend to develop consistent responses to similar situations over time. Studies on cross-situational consistency show that individuals often maintain behavioral patterns, especially in familiar social contexts with friends and acquaintances.