Many of these are derived from the most recent episode of dithering with John Gruber and Ben Thompson, but feel free to add more
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@DavidFWatson yes please wait. Rumours were that the pro max has a different sensor from sony and they probably would not say that on stage
@gigab0nus Are you going to tell me you want to wait for teardowns? That seems... less than ideal.
@DavidFWatson I was planning to wait for the 'tech specs' portion of the website, would that be acceptable?
@DavidFWatson yeah you can resolve this if you want, but we may have to come back to reresolve this later. This question was most of the time at 40% and tbh I thought the remaining 60% were because of the sensor. I had a YES position most of the time and now I have a small NO
@gigab0nus I thought it was just that folks were assuming they'd be the same as last year? But maybe @traders are all just very in-the-know on this?
These prop bets were all from Dithering (as I mentioned in the description). I'd be astounded if Gruber or Thompson care in the slightest about sensor sourcing. I suppose I could have explicitly said that I'd resolve based on whatever they say on their next episode, but I was quite worried that they might never explicitly say what they felt the outcomes were.
@gigab0nus imo it's fair to go by the tech specs on the website.
(If the sensors are from different suppliers that doesn't necessarily mean it's different hardware in the spirit of the question. There have been iPhone models before where different devices have different SoCs from different suppliers, e.g. the 6s. If it's not on the website we can assume the experience for the end user won't be noticeably different, even if the suppliers aren't the same.)
Apple often hides hardware differences that make a noticable difference. Best example is RAM. But yeah you can decide how to deal with this. In my opinion it would be a NO if this rumor is true: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2024/05/26/iphone-16-pro-max-key-new-upgrades-leaked-in-latest-report/
But yeah still debatable
@DavidFWatson I'm inclined to resolve this to YES, although it seems some folks bet 'NO' after it was shown onscreen, which honestly confuses me. The speaker grille alone appears significantly different
@DavidFWatson I started out on NO because the difference were less visually salient than I would have expected at that %, then reversed to YES mainly because of the significantly increased screen size.
related market: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/will-a-presenter-say-ai-during-appl
(resolution criteria is inclusive of "OpenAI")