Resolves YES if Manifest 2024:
a) Does not overlap any of the Major Jewish Holidays (herein meaning Rosh Hashanah [2-day chag rules], Yom Kippur, and Passover -- author is very aware there are many others that you might include here, but chose not to), AND
b) Begins at least 24 hours after the conclusion of a Major Jewish Holiday, AND
c) Ends at least 24 hours before the start of a Major Jewish Holiday
Resolves NO if any of the above 3 conditions are violated, unless meeting N/A conditions below.
Resolves N/A if Manifold
d) holds an additional conference of similar scope to Manifest in 2023, OR
e) does not hold a conference in 2024 of similar scope to Manifest 2023.
Note: Holidays are interpreted as beginning and ending at sundown-anchored times according to Jewish calendar.
Further note: This is a gentle nudge for Manifold for future planning, not a serious critique about this year's plan. Organizing conferences is hard and scheduling them is harder, especially on short notice. Author is still considering flying out for the first 1.5 days of the conference.
Further further note: The question author is intrinsically supportive of Manifest 2024 occuring during Shavuot, and will send cheesecakes to the event at his own cost should this occur.
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@DaveK i assume this can resolve YES? as the title refers to "scheduling" Manifest 2024 (not waiting until it's held). the event has been scheduled for june 7-9
@Ziddletwix I think I wrote the question slightly ambiguously, but feel comfortable resolving YES now, rather than waiting until June, given overall trader sentiment and also the reasons to do so prior to May 15.
a couple updates!
we'll very likely be running manifest 2 in 2024 (~90%)
it'll probably be a bit earlier in the year, before the high holidays
we generally have a lot more flexibility, since we're starting the planning process quite early — which means our backs are less up against a wall
i'll ~likely~ be running manifest 2, or at least participating in the planning process in some significant respect!
hey! i'm one of the lead organizers for the conference. i'm also jewish! (tho i'm like halfway between conservative and reform. read: i'm a holiday jew)
we'll likely be hosting ~some sort of small yom kippur service-like thing (altho the rose garden inn isn't a temple, so :P), or at least just getting a group of people together to walk over to temple. i was against running manifest right before yom kippur, but we didn't really have a better option.
we'll be serving food before sundown, so that you can eat before the fast.
happy to answer any other questions :)
saul
@saulmunn Hi! That's lovely to hear. I ideally intend to get back to the East Coast before Kol Nidre (you can predict my odds of doing that here: https://manifold.markets/DaveK/if-i-go-to-manifest-2023-will-i-suc) but it's really really wonderful to know there's a backup option if flights fall through, etc.
I totally get that when you're throwing a conference for the first time, your back can be up against a wall on scheduling, and I certainly hope it's clear that I hold no dislike nor disregard for y'all organizing this despite the awkward scheduling. And to be super explicit, I would certainly never tell another Jewish person how to observe the High Holidays or even whether to do so, and think essentially any choices here, including but not limited to the ones it sounds like you'll be making, are really really reasonable for folks to make.
But I also am not above using a question to nudge decision-making processes for future years, when there's hopefully more flexibility, in a way that's beneficial to me and some other folks :)
@DaveK dave, i really appreciate the politeness! means a lot. thank you!
also, i bet on the market to align my incentives (though, i'm not sure whether i'll be organizing future manifests, or even whether there will be future manifests)