Will I finish cleaning out the staircase closet before June 18th?
8
7
Ṁ104
resolved Jun 15
Resolved
YES
I already did half in the span of about a week, however, I have limited control over my time and I find the task tremendously aversive. Posting this out of mild curiosity on personal question prediction markets, especially related to goal setting.
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predicted YES
Resolved to yes: have to admit there was definitely some added motivational force from having a market like this. Interesting experience.
predicted YES
Third update. Did another but. 10% of the work left and one day left (tomorrow). I think I should be able to squeeze this in even if the day tomorrow becomes hectic (which it might). Also noticing this pure accountability here works for my brain so yay ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
predicted YES
Second update: finished another third of the work today. About 30-40% of the work for this week is left. I have 1 or 2 days left to do it cause my Friday and Saturday are blocked out. I might lose another day to other responsibilities though (pending), and there is a 40% chance I'll get very little sleep tonight. All that said, I just need one more large-ish time slot to finish this. Feeling optimistic.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Small bet just for general planning fallacy reasons.
predicted YES
Did about 30% today. Also found out I have about 2 days left to finish instead of 4, cause the other 2 days are now fully booked. Still feels feasible.
bought Ṁ100 of YES
I'm feeling pretty confident I can do this (haven't started yet)

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