Dan's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.65
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Dan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
70%
- On April 1st, this market resolves to 'YES' if it closes strictly between 20% to 98%, or if it closes strictly above 99%YESṀ200
- On April 1st, this market resolves to 'YES' if it closes strictly between 20% to 98%, or if it closes strictly above 99%YESṀ100
- Will Yokohama F. Marinos beat Gamba Osaka during regular time on Wed, Apr 10, 2024?⚽ J1 League 🇯🇵YESṀ50
80%
90%
95%