Will my article on AI prediction markets get more than 5,000 views by May 1, 2023?
➕
Plus
168
Ṁ46k
resolved May 1
Resolved
NO

Article: https://www.statsignificant.com/p/the-ai-forecast-what-humanity-predicts

Resolves as "yes" if my article receives more than 5,000 views, as counted by Substack, before 5/1/2023. Feel free to share the piece if you vote “yes.” Will help your cause 🙂

Screenshot of the current view count below:

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Several of your markets have resolved, but are still being advertised. You might want to stop the advertisement to save some money.

Thanks for playing everyone! And thanks those who voted “yes”. You believed in me and I appreciate that 🙌

predictedNO

@DanielParris And everyone go read the article if you haven’t yet

predictedNO

@DanielParris I think it wasn't commonly realised how front weighted content views are. Views per day falls incredibly quickly.

Also now I can finally go read it without risking tipping the scales away from my bet :)

An update:

@DanielParris What time zone are we using for this market? UTC? ET? PT? Unless you are in Hawaii, this should probably resolve NO.

predictedYES

@DanielParris How disappointing..... You need to do better with marketing your site man

How many views right now? And how does one check?

predictedNO

@soph I think he's leaving us in the dark on purpose 😅

predictedYES
predictedYES

This was a good read btw. Hopefully others read it

"...as if the culture wars are a sentient chaos monkey intent on invading all facets of widespread culture." - incredible, had a good laugh. Great article!

predictedNO

I'll read it after may

In which case your average convenience store clerk is smarter than the three letter doomer

Maybe the real Bayes’ Law was having intelligent priors from maximal iteration speed and exposure to reality

4/24 Update:

predictedYES

@DanielParris Any chance of further updates?

Voting no to subsidize the market, not because I don't like you 👍

Updated view count:

predictedYES

@DanielParris can we get an update?

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