Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES for any month in which there are at least three consecutive calendar days (using Israel Standard Time, IST) where air raid sirens or red alerts are triggered in any part of Israel by missiles or drones launched directly from Iranian territory. Otherwise, those months will resolve to NO.

For the purposes of this market:

• "Sirens" refers to official alerts (Tzeva Adom / Red Alert) or air raid sirens issued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command (Pikud HaOref).

• "Caused by Iranian missiles" requires that the projectiles (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or explosive UAVs/drones) were launched directly from Iranian soil. Rocket, missile, or drone attacks launched by regional proxies (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, or militias in Iraq/Syria) do not count, unless the IDF or the US Department of Defense explicitly confirms that the specific projectiles causing the sirens were launched from within Iran's borders.

• "At least 3 consecutive days" means that on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 (all consecutive calendar days), at least one qualifying alert is activated on each day.

• Month attribution: A 3-day consecutive streak spanning across the boundary of two months (e.g., October 30, October 31, and November 1) will not be sufficient to resolve either month to YES. Each month requires three consecutive siren days occurring in it in order to resolve YES.

Sources of Truth:

• Official statements by the IDF Spokesperson

• Alerts archived by the Israel Home Front Command

• Reputable international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) or Israeli media (e.g., The Times of Israel, Haaretz).