Will I place better than the median in the finals of the Manifest poker tournament?

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resolved Sep 25

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I advanced from my satellite tournament to the finals. I'm not exactly sure how many people will be in the finals (I think 2 people from each of 3 satellites, plus some small number of VIPs/professionals?), but presumably one will be able to rank people in the finals by order of elimination, and then by chip count among people who remain when they wrap it up.

The question is: will I place better than median?

That is, this would resolve yes if there was a 9-person table and I came 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, and no otherwise. Similarly, if there was a 6-person table and I came 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, it would resolve yes, and otherwise it would resolve no. If for some reason no ranking is produced (because e.g. there are multiple tables and the last 3 standing in each table merge into a new table), this will resolve N/A.

I will not bet in this market.

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Will I beat Jacob Lagerros in the finals of the Manifest poker tournament?

48% chance. We're former housemates who are both in the finals. Resolves Yes if I beat him, No if he beats me, N/A if one of us can't make it, or if we somehow tie, or if somehow our placements are incomparable.

Possibly relevant: https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-grimes-attend-my-talk-at-manif?r=RGFuaWVsRmlsYW4

Will Grimes attend my talk at Manifest?

Resolved NO. I'm going to give a side-event talk about how a few theoretical AI algorithms basically involve using prediction markets to be properly rational. Grimes is interested in AI and will be attending Manifest. Unfortunately, my talk is scheduled at the same time as Robin Hanson's talk (4 pm Saturday), and he's the guy who invented prediction markets. I will ask at the start and at the end of my talk if any of the attendees is Grimes, and will resolve according to my best judgement (e.g. if Grimes comes in during the middle of the talk but isn't present at the start or at the end, I'll resolve yes, and if someone claims to be Grimes but I don't believe them, I'll resolve no). I will not bet in this market.

The prior for a random person in a small-n poker tournament is slightly worse than median; and some of the competitors are supposed to be really good.

predictedNO

@LinchuanZhang If we think it's ~8-9 people the prior is (4/9+1/2)/2 =17/36 ~=47%

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