Will I place better than the median in the finals of the Manifest poker tournament?
19
215
370
resolved Sep 25
Resolved
NO

I advanced from my satellite tournament to the finals. I'm not exactly sure how many people will be in the finals (I think 2 people from each of 3 satellites, plus some small number of VIPs/professionals?), but presumably one will be able to rank people in the finals by order of elimination, and then by chip count among people who remain when they wrap it up.

The question is: will I place better than median?

That is, this would resolve yes if there was a 9-person table and I came 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, and no otherwise. Similarly, if there was a 6-person table and I came 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, it would resolve yes, and otherwise it would resolve no. If for some reason no ranking is produced (because e.g. there are multiple tables and the last 3 standing in each table merge into a new table), this will resolve N/A.

I will not bet in this market.

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bought Ṁ28 of NO

The prior for a random person in a small-n poker tournament is slightly worse than median; and some of the competitors are supposed to be really good.

predicted NO

@LinchuanZhang If we think it's ~8-9 people the prior is (4/9+1/2)/2 =17/36 ~=47%