MANIFOLD
How many episodes of AXRP will I release in 2025?
9
Ṁ10kṀ45k
resolved Jan 1
100%2%
0-9
88%
10-12
7%
13-15
3%
>15

In 2020, I released 3 episodes. In 2021, I released 9. In 2022, I released 6. In 2023, I released 8. So far in 2024, I have released 9, but more are on the way. How many will I release in 2025? Notes:

  • I have a job now, which limits how much I can work on the podcast

  • ... but I currently am getting one day a week to focus on AXRP

  • ... but that wouldn't be true all year

  • ... but who knows how stable my employment is anyway (I only graduated from my PhD in 2024)

  • I would like to make them at a rate of slightly over one per month

  • Only integer-numbered episodes count

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i vote for na in the case where nobody understood the market correctly

@strutheo I basically disagree with this unless someone can come up with an alternate reading of "Only integer-numbered episodes count" that makes sense and justifies 10-12 as an answer.

@strutheo is this the sort of thing where we should call in a mod? (Serious question, unfortunately I haven't been using the site much in the last year)

sure they can do some advice @mods

@strutheo very buried in the fine print. I mean, it's fiiine but a little lame of a resolution. I wish it hadn't been a part of the criteria, but it also makes sense to have there if like you have hour long eps and then 3 min addendums even if they look on spotify like separate eps. I know it stings for people but let it stand

@Stralor OK based on (a) my sense that the criteria are unambiguous, (b) mod feedback and (c) the majority of negatively affected traders, I'm letting this stand.

1) clearly they were ambiguous? did any trader understand them? we're all here discussing for a reason.


2) the market ended up measuring nothing, traders didnt win mana from losers for correctly predicting

@strutheo

1) the fact that many traders failed to understand something doesn't make it ambiguous

2) yep that's too bad

Resolved 0-9, as per the "Only integer-numbered episodes count" proviso (I count 7 integer-numbered episodes released in 2025, episodes 40 thru 46). LMK if you think there's a better reading.

@DanielFilan @strutheo may have comments

@DanielFilan oh come on.... i dispute this heavily. anyong going to spotify would count each episode as separate

@strutheo nobody stepped in to clarify this sooner ?

@strutheo TBC I think your reading would be totally right had I not said "integer-numbered"

@strutheo What clarification is there? The criteria seem pretty clear to me. Seems like I and others just didn't read carefully enough.

@DanielFilan the title should've been 'how many integer numbered episodes' then or something more specific

this is like having a market called 'how many balls are there in this box' and in the comments you specify 'red balls only' (not in the spirit of the market IMHO)

these noninteger episodes are still 'episodes' to any layperson's reading

there is a very obvious reason everyone missed this, i appeal to that

@strutheo Note that under this reading, the first sentences of the description would be false: I would have had 10 episodes in 2021 and 7 in 2022. A natural reason for the "integer-numbered" proviso is that the non-integer-numbered episodes are significantly shorter and lower-content.

@strutheo The noninteger episodes are much shorter, if the market creator wants to define them as not episodes, that seems fine to me. Isn't there a longstanding norm that the criteria are what win out in cases where there is a discrepancy with the title?

the problem is that 'epsiode' as a term in the title refers to something that most people would consider any Spotify entry. if i saw a 10 min episode id still consider it an episode right

@BoltonBailey
> Isn't there a longstanding norm that the criteria are what win out in cases where there is a discrepancy with the title?
The community guidelines don't mention this, but they do say that creators resolve markets except for cases where the proper resolution is ambiguous.

@strutheo This isn't really what happened in 2025, but surely if I posted a 1-minute update about the podcast that wasn't an interview with someone, that shouldn't count as an 'episode' right?

creators usually have final say , they can defer to moderator advice

no but if it has the same numbering scheme of other episodes i would think its just a short one

I wouldn't expect an update or other side content to be numbered

I think I should have read more carefully personally

@strutheo
> nobody stepped in to clarify this sooner ?
Yeah I do think in an ideal world I would have stepped in to clarify this, or someone would have tagged me to ask for clarification.

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