Daniel Filan's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.9
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Daniel Filan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
- Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before February 27th Eastern Time?NOṀ5
- Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th Pacific Time?NOṀ3
- Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before February 27th Eastern Time?NOṀ3
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?YESṀ500
- Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?YESṀ250
- Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th Pacific Time?NOṀ53
60%
- Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?YESṀ500
- Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?YESṀ500
- Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?YESṀ500
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%