Daniel Chaput's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.02
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Daniel Chaput bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will there be an serious coup attempt in Russia aganist Putin (successful or unsuccessful) by the end of 2023NOṀ5
60%
70%
80%
90%