Resolves according to manifold.markets/stats as soon as stats is available, based on the Daily (7d avg) chart for the value labelled "Aug 30".
Manifold has had a huge surge of users from the superconductor market. Daily numbers, however, are beginning to drop. Just before the surge, Manifold was average around 900 DAU (7d avg). The average on August 7th is almost 2500. Will the site retain a lot of users from superconductor mania?
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@chrisjbillington Why are you betting NO? I am very paranoid now.... Edit: changed to 1462 for "more than 1500"
(1651 + 1617 + 1391 + 1464 + 1462*3) / 7 = 1501
It seems to me very unlikely to be below 1462 on average for the next 3 days given the seasonality of the last 2 weeks where the DAU(1d) is usually peaking on Wednesday and higher Monday-Thursday then Sat/Sun.
@parhizj I bought most of my NO either at higher probability or a few days ago when NO was looking more likely. I think the current price is probably about right. I don't think the weekly cycle from the last two weeks can be assumed to continue, in particular last week there were surges in activity due to Prigozhin and Trump's tweet/mugshot, similar things may or may not occur this week.
I bought a little more NO some hours ago thinking today's numbers might be suppressed due to the loans mishap - that looks not to have been the case, though.
@DanMan314 can you confirm that you will be using the 7d avg engagement number of August 29? (the date as you mouse hover) (it is a tiny bit confusing since you mention August 30)
You mention below https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-more-than-1500-d#VpDy31FeZPWFpXbrcsdm
that on Aug 23 it was 1533 when that was the value for Aug 22, so it is a bit unclear if you will check the last value ON the day of Aug 30 (which will likely be the value for Aug 29) (or will you wait to Aug 31 to check the value for Aug 30 (as shown on mouse hover))
@parhizj I am going to use the value labeled "Aug 30" on the graph, when it is available (which will likely be be Aug 31). Is that not clear from the title? It's referring to the number of 7d avg daily active users the platform itself has on Aug 30, not the data that happens to be on the graph on Aug 30.
@chrisjbillington Ugh my brain is clearly not working today. Thought August was a 30 day month.
@DanMan314 I think it’ll be close. It won’t be like the most recent day because it’s the weekend.
To be clear, this is about the 7d average, which today (8/22) is 1533, not the regular Daily value, which is 1463 today.