Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?
46
34k
2025
63%
chance

TL;DR: Bet on my New Year's resolution that I've failed at 2 years in a row and never gotten particularly close on (265/315lbs).

Motivation market time! My squat has always lagged behind my other lifts. For the last 2 years, my personal goal has been to be able to squat 315lbs. I have failed twice in a row now, and my lifetime maximum is only 265lbs. Give me some incentive to succeed!

This market resolves YES if, at any time before the end of the year, I squat 3 plates to satisfactory depth while not goodharting myself into neglecting my other fitness goals. Specifically, I have to squat 315lbs, and also:

  • Bench 225lbs (current 1rm slightly under)

  • Weighted pullup +80lbs (current 1rm roughly this)

  • Weigh less than 170lbs (currently 163lbs)

  • Run a mile <7:30 minutes (currently ~7 minute mile)

I don't have to do all of this on the same day, but I should demonstrate that I can do it within a 2 week period of my squat.

If at the end of the year I haven't done this, resolves NO. I'll resolve a little earlier than that if it's clear I won't make it.


Why will I fail?

  • I have set a goal to do this for the last 2 years and failed both times. In 2022, I gave myself a 50% chance of succeeding. In 2023, I gave myself a 30% chance of succeeding. In 2024, in my personal yearly prediction tracker, I'm also giving myself a 30% chance.

  • I generally just don't like squatting nearly as much as other lifts. It's harder to motivate myself to grind.

  • This is a very busy year for me! I'm getting married, likely going on a honeymoon, and also expect work to be busier than average.

Why might I succeed?

  • There's really nothing fundamental stopping me. When I'm consistently working out, tracking progressive overload, and eating reasonably well, my squat goes up. I think if I find a continuous period 6 month period to focus on it, I could do it.

  • I have never staked a large amount of fake internet points on it before.

Logistics

  • I will only buy YES on the market, and never sell

  • I commit to spending a minimum of Ṁ25,000 on this market by the end of May.

  • I will post video proof of the 315 squat, 225 bench, +80 pull up, and scale. I'll give an Apple Fitness screenshot of the 7:30m run.

  • I track my workouts on Strong. I'll give updates on my computed squat 1rm at minimum monthly, and at least qualitative updates on the other stats. I'm not making any guarantees on how often I'll test my actual 1rm.

  • "Satisfactory depth" means to layperson gym-goer standards, not IPF-judge nitpicking. I commit to nullifying an attempt that I believed succeeded if a majority of commenters tell me I'm full of crap.

Advice is welcome! But I think the most likely reason for failure will be a lack of consistency, not under-optimizing my set count or something like that.


Update Log:

1/14:

  • Squat

    • Best set: 185x5, RPE 8

    • I did quite a bit of volume after not squatting for a bit and my legs were totally cooked the next couple days.

1/21:

  • Running:

    • Did 8.5mph for .6 miles - was pretty wiped at the end but maybe could have gone a little longer with the right motivation. I think I'm pretty close to the goal right now.

  • Weighted pullup:

    • Best set: +70x3

    • I think I could comfortably do +80 right now

  • Weight:

    • 159lbs. I'm glad I gave myself some room to gain a little muscle, fingers crossed. I'm also loading creatine right now so expect to gain a few pounds.

2/4:

I'm finding this market pretty motivating, especially knowing I've committed to dumping much more Ṁ into this over the next few months. I think I've just about hit around where I consider my base level of strength after shaking off holiday laziness, so it's more about actual growth from here. Still happy where where I'm at.

  • Running: Did 1.33 miles @ 8 mph. Just maintaining here.

  • Weighted Pullup: Did +70x3. Also maintaining

  • Bench: Some work needed here. I did a rep of 210lbs, which felt somewhat close to my max, which is disappointing. I'm probably around 215lbs max.

  • Weight: 160lbs. I expect to gain a little more over the next month or so.

  • Squat: Best set 185x7, RPE 8. Strong gives a computed 1RM of 222, I think I could get up 2 plates with some effort to spare.

2/20:

Still making progress! I have a climbing trip coming up, so have been climbing more at the expense of workouts, especially cardio.

  • Squat: Did 225x2. I maaaaybe could have done another rep, but it would have been iffy. I'd estimate my 1rm to be 235. Pretty pleased with progress, but a looong way to go.

  • Bench: I think I'm very close to 225, if not there already. I did 215x1 and felt some strength left.

3/1:

Slow and steady! Still have that climbing trip coming up but have mostly neglected training for it lol.

  • Bench: Got 225lbs! Barely, so hoping to add a little more strength here, but we're good to go.

  • Squat: I'm switching to 195lbs as my working weight after getting 3 sets of 185x8. Still incrementally increasing total volume, haven't tried higher weights since getting 225x2.

3/20:

I injured my arm (somewhere around the lat?), which ironically has made me focus on squats more...

  • Bench: Benched 230lbs, I feel like I could have maybe done 5lbs more or so. Getting into all time PR territory :D

  • Squat: Hit 205x6 with maybe 2 reps in the tank. Still steady progress.

  • Weight: I actually sort of think maybe I should be gaining more, I'm still around 161lbs.

4/2:

I can feel progress slowing down a little bit. Going to push through, maybe eat a little more.

  • Squat: Best set 205x7. I still think I could get a few more reps in at this weight given the right conditions, but I used to be steadily going up a rep every session, and it's getting much harder.

  • Weighted pullup: I still have that back injury and can't do pullups. Going to have to rebuild some strength once I feel confident putting weight on it again, which could be a while.

  • Everything else is still in the green. Ran a 7:04 mile a few days ago. Weight is 164ish.

4/28:

Plateaued and sunk down surprisingly quickly after a week or so of not working out. Working my way back up, but slowly. Pretty frustrating how quickly my squat sucks after I get out of my regular schedule.

  • Best set was 205x4.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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I'm sorry, but given the art, you're gonna have to up it four ;)

I recorded this in my yearly prediction tracker as a 30% chance. I think everyone is traumatized from @firstuserhere's market, 80% seems really high to me!

Come give me some incentive, in either direction!

bought Ṁ250 NO from 85% to 74%
predicts YES

Here is my calibration from my personal predictions last year:

@DanMan314 betting NO for incentive, take my mana if you can

bought Ṁ250 NO from 74% to 63%

I am sorry but I am a professional hater 😔

I believe in you

bought Ṁ50 YES from 73% to 74%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 70%
bought Ṁ50 YES from 72% to 73%

@jskf TL;DR: Bet against my New Year's resolution that I've failed at 2 years in a row and never gotten particularly close on (265/315lbs).