I will resolve based on the success of TikTok in acquiring their sought relief, specifically:
Broadly, a ruling that the entire law or at least the portions that allow the US government to enforce the "tiktok ban" (via bans on app and cloud hosting) are unconstitutional would cause a resolution in favor of TikTok, while a ruling that allows the ban to proceed would resolve in favor of the US government.
This market resolves based on the final ruling of the US Judicial System, including appeals. I will resolve based on when it is clear the judiciary has issued a final ruling, whether that's via SCOTUS ruling or cert being denied by a higher court.
Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Early Resolution:
If the Supreme Court issues a unanimous decision in favor of Garland & the US government, the market will be resolved early to reflect that outcome.
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This market wasn't originally mine, so I was worried about having to work out potential edge cases, but the unanimous Supreme Court decision seems to be an unqualified resolution in favour of Garland & US government. If no one objects, I'll resolve to that in a couple of days.
This is actually a critical national security issue, I think that it's going through.