What share of the vote will “Uncommitted” get in the Michigan Democratic primary on February 27?
Basic
28
14k
resolved Feb 28
100%99.3%
12.5% - 14.9%
0.0%
Less than 10.0%
0.2%
10.0% - 12.4%
0.5%
15.0% - 17.4%
0.0%
17.5% - 19.9%
0.0%
20.0% or higher

Based on NYT results rounded to the nearest tenth.

If exactly 12.4000…%, will resolve to 50% each of the 10-12.4 and 12.5-15 brackets.

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New York Times reports that "Uncommitted" is currently at 13.8%, with 85% of expected votes in. With those numbers, it would have to get about 5% or less to go below 12.5%, and about 22% or more to go above 15%. Looking at the county level results, the smallest share of uncommitted votes are from Montmorency County, with only 8%, and the largest share is from Wayne County with 21%. All the counties that actually have a substantial portion of the vote left to count are at at least 10%, so it's extremely unlikely that the outstanding vote will be even close to the <5% required for the 10 - 12.4% bin to resolve YES (especially since 5% is a far lower vote share than any county currently has).

Wayne County has the largest number of outstanding votes, and as mentioned, also the highest "Uncommitted" vote share. So I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage goes higher as more votes are counted. But it would be very difficult for it to reach 15%, since, as mentioned, that requires a little more than even the percentage of currently counted Wayne County votes. The percentage in Wayne County has increased from where it was previously, though, so the remaining Wayne County votes alone could be higher than that needed percentage (but the total outstanding vote will be pulled lower by the votes from all the other counties). I'd say there's still an outside chance that the 15 - 17.4 bin resolves YES, but it's a very outside chance. It would the remaining Wayne County vote to be large enough to overwhelm the other counties and bring it above 15%, or for the Times's estimation of the percentage of total vote reporting to be off, or possibly a combination of the two. In any case, I do think this option should be higher than 10 - 12.4%, since there is no pathway for that one anymore.

bought Ṁ1,000 10.0% - 12.4% NO

@PlasmaBallin As I was writing this, the total votes counted went up to 89%, and the proportion of uncommitted votes didn't change. Now the 10 - 12.4% option is even more impossible (even 2% of the outstanding vote would be too much), and breaking 15% would require more like 25% of the remaining vote. So 12.5 - 14.9 is an increasingly safe bet.

bought Ṁ50 12.5% - 14.9% YES

I've copied the per-county results from the New York Times to a spreadsheet and projected the final results. My current estimate is 13.25% Uncommitted.

Of course, there are likely some rounding errors with my method. But I think it's safe to conclude that the remaining vote leans more toward Uncommitted.

bought Ṁ50 10.0% - 12.4% YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Interesting projection, however linear extrapolation will fail for some obvious reasons

opened a Ṁ79 12.5% - 14.9% YES at 55% order

It's not a perfect estimate, but I'm feeling more than 55% confident at the moment. ;-)

Updated estimate is 13.1%. There are roughly 30,000 Uncommitted votes left, of which 21,000 are in Wayne County.

If anything, I suspect that simple linear extrapolation is an underestimate, based on the precincts that still need to report: Wayne Election Results (totalvote.com).

bought Ṁ10 15.0% - 17.4% YES

As I suspected, Wayne County had a lot more Uncommitted votes. Updated projection is at least 14.3%, but that may increase further. Could we actually reach 15%?

The remaining precincts for Wayne County are all in Detroit. If they somehow vote as heavily for Uncommitted as the Dearborn precincts did, I think we could reach the 15% bracket. But that seems pretty unlikely.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 What are you thinking for this one?

@PlasmaBallin Haha, my latest estimate with a simple linear extrapolation is 14.05%. 50/50 sounds about right.

bought Ṁ20 10.0% - 12.4% YES

@HthePenguin Eh, I think 12.5 is possible but 12.0 might be too high of a hill to climb on Wayne votes that include Dearborn.

I just created this question: https://manifold.markets/HthePenguin/will-uncommitted-get-between-12-and, to resolve the inconsistency between some of the Michigan Democratic Primary polls. 2 are listed, which gives an opportunity for arbitrage.

Beginning to think Marianne doesn't have a shot

bought Ṁ20 12.5% - 14.9% YES

Wow!

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