Trump was charged in June by special counsel Jack Smith with illegally retaining classified documents taken with him from the White House to Mar-a-Lago after he left office in January 2021, and then obstructing government demands to give them back. He was hit with additional charges in July accusing him of conspiring to ask a staffer to delete surveillance video at the property, and with holding onto a document  -- described by prosecutors as a Pentagon “plan of attack” -- he’s alleged to have shown to visitors at his golf club in New Jersey.

Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.

IMPORTANT: This market will resolve to the outcome that ends the trial. If some charges are dropped (or a plea bargain is struck), but others go all the way to a jury verdict, this market resolves to jury verdict.

For jury decisions on multiple counts that end the trial, resolves to the valid option listed highest in the description. Guilty if guilty on any counts, otherwise mistrial if mistrial on any counts, otherwise not guilty.

Resolution Details

Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict: A jury declares Trump guilty of at least one crime.

Mistrial: The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.

Not guilty (of any crimes) by jury verdict: A jury clears Trump of all crimes

Plea bargain: Trump agrees to any sort of plea bargain, ending the trial. If there is a plea bargain on some charges, and a jury later rules Trump not guilty on the remaining charges, the market still resolves to "not guilty by jury verdict".

Dismissal / dropped charges: A judge drops all the charges, ending the trial, or dismisses the case for another reason. Includes the prosecution dropping charges with no plea deal.

If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals or retrials.