Dach's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.56
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Dach bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted? (2023)NOṀ25
- Personal: Will I Successfully Log Over 60 Miles of Distance on my Strava Public Athlete Page for May 2023?NOṀ10
- Will this 'question' have at least 65 unique traders by close in 2 days, Monday June 26th at 8am?YESṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Manifold deem me unworthy of a "Trustworthy. Ish." badge by the end of 2023?YESṀ328
- Will any prediction market clearly elicit knowledge about an important event that was otherwise unknown to the public before 2025?YESṀ169
- Will any prediction market clearly elicit knowledge about an important event that was otherwise unknown to the public before 2025?YESṀ100
95%
97%