DAL59's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -7.23
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when DAL59 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
- We are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like thatNOṀ100
- Will any of the 2021-22 College Footbal Playoff games be canceled due to Covid-19?NOṀ20
- Will Mantic Markets have 5 paying users by Feb 01, 2022?YESṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ500
- Will the anime ending of Attack on Titan differ substantially from the manga’s? Alternative ending also resolves as yes.NOṀ100
- Will Magnus Carlsen play in the next World Chess Championship?NOṀ50