Does she like me?

These are the facts I know about our relationship: 0. So I woke up 42 minutes late and resulted in us missing the train with people from the university club to the convention and she wasn’t angry at all. 1. She pretty much stayed with me at all times at convention, even when she met her other friends. 1.1 She gave up the opportunity to spend more time with a friend she hadn’t spoken to in 2 years to hang with me. 2. When I asked her if she wanted to (a) leave at 18:00 to leave with the rest of the club, or (b) leave later and maybe see some mutual acquaintance she said b would be better. 3. She instinctively referred to us as “we” on the group chat without clarifying (I had to). 4. When we were in the train with this other club member, he offered to switch places with me so I could talk to her. 5. She decided to order at the “fancy” pizza place I went to even though it was a bit “pricey” and her other friend went to a burrito place which I assume was cheaper. 6. When the mutual acquaintance (who had a place to stay in the convention city) was there and we were leaving, I suggested he drop us off at the train station, and she said he shouldn’t, ostensibly because he’s tired. 7. She was upset I didn’t attend a club showing because of some homework. 8. She specifically texted me when I came late to a club showing. 9. She accepted my dinner invitation (as friends) at short notice, and then we stayed there for three hours. 9.1 When I said we should leave because the place is closing, she didn’t believe me initially and wouldn’t’ve wanted to go if it weren’t closing. 10. We were up till 04:30 (arriving at my place at 22:15) playing Lover’s Spacetime and we only stopped because I said I wanted to. On average, we have spent 10 hours a week seeing each other in person, and another 10 hours a week texting. Feb 22, 12:20am: to be clear, this is about romantic liking. This will resolve when either 0. I ask her out and then her response is yes or no; 1. the deadline passes, leading to N/A; or 2. she starts dating someone else, in which case it is no. I’m aware there’s a small possibility she could like me, but still says no. Unless I otherwise am informed, the question will resolve to no if she says no. Feb 22, 1:41am: Good comment from @Jd about negative signals. In terms of negative signals: we're both nerds, and in particular the evidence shows that she doesn't have many other quality friends (she complains about her "friends" not really talking and staring at their phones), so maybe she wants to spend more time with me since I actually talk to her. Another negative signal is that she almost never initiates, it is almost always me, although whenever I initiate, if it's online she responds instantly most of the time, and for anything in person she's never said no before, and it's always been me ending the hang out sessions. We've known each other for more than a year now, but only now really started to hang out (because covid), and before she didn't seem all too interested back then. "Le monde moderne, ce sont des idées à la mode qui passeront comme toutes les modes" Feb 22, 13:12: Another possibly negative signal. The club organised a trip to some attraction, but she didn't manage to make the cut-off for reservations. While there we were texting and we had the following exchange (the final response was delayed by several minutes): "how is it? — Alright, kinda miss you. — there there, i'm sure you'll be fine without me" My message was sent somewhat tactically to see how she feels about me, and her dismissive response could be seen as a "friend-zone". But it's also possible she meant it jokingly, or didn't want to respond too strongly as she doesn't know that I like her. Note that we tend to make a lot of jokes, and tend to tease each other frequently. Feb 23, 1:09pm: Also I encourage anyone to ask questions to better ascertain my chances. Feb 23, 8:41pm: @Lorenzo In actuality I did ask her, and I do know the answer. But the thing is when I developed the crush, I had recently read about subjective probability, and decided to ask them to tell me what probability they think based on the information I provide and see how it updates overtime, with the messages you’re reading. Recently I found out about Manifold and decided to post the messages from out chatlog and conversations here to see what people think. I encourage everyone to play honestly, because then it’s more interesting. I’m making sure I don’t ever say anything I know from after I asked her to make sure it’s fair. I also get 50:50 so it’s fair (but mostly because I didn’t realise what it was asking as it was my first time). In terms of why I didn’t ask immediately, well I’m an awkward nerd, I needed to work up the courage, to plan how to, and the best moment was 14 days after I developed feelings for her in the real timeline. I also don’t think you should ask out female friends without knowing there’s at least a small possibility (>= 10 %) they might like you, because otherwise due to the unfortunately gendered nature of dating, it means they have a lot of male friends just falling for them “out of the blue” which is unfortunate. Whoops, “decided to ask them” should read “ decided to ask my friends”. Feb 25, 12:17pm: (the story will still be in present tense, since the secret is out, I'll post an update every few days so the market has enough time to react but often enough so it's still interesting) So I dragged my friends to the club we go to, to see her. When we were walking to the club, I'd mentioned she'd see my friends, and things were a bit awkward. Honestly, things stayed kinda awkward for most of the night, but got better once it was just us again. I also standing/being closer to her tonight, at the start of the night she would move away, or it seemed like she placed a coat to prevent it, but as it went on she stopped moving away. My friends had said based on the information, before they assigned a probability of 30 % that she liked me, but now they assigned 50 %. After my friends were gone, we were talking about the latest club activity which mentioned mental health, and she began talking about one of her friend's mental health problems for like 20 minutes before apologising for basically doxxing them, and saying "I don't know why I told you all that". It also turns out she shares one of my incredibly niche interests in something which is incredibly inane for most people which is nice. Feb 27, 1:14am: I forgot to reply to @Jonathan’s comment, I spent like 20 minutes writing the message, trying very hard to not give it away. You can keep looking for a deeper meaning, but I don’t think most people could discover anything above chance, and I’d urge you to ignore it because it contains post-request information. Feb 27, 2:57pm: So she left to go back home for the weekend, but she forgot her half-fare card in her room, and she needed it to travel back. I offered to go to her place and mail it back to her. She initially refused because she didn't want to burden me and because her room was a "complete and utter mess". For the room comment, I pointed out that I'd probably see it messy anyways, which she agreed with, which implies she can see me coming to her place (so far she's only been to my place), and that I don't judge. In terms of burdening me, she relented because her mum said (direct quote) "psychological surveys say doing favours build closer friendships". Initially I was a bit off-put by this, because it seemed like a bit of a friend-zone, but actually I think this is a good sign if her mum is positive about us being close friends, but I don't really know how much she knows about me. For actually getting the half-fare card, she gave me a list of instructions written the way I would (pretty precise and really minute, like enter, turn left, turn right, walk straight etc) and in fact gave me a map of the house to show where her room was. She was really thankful I mailed it to her. I noticed an interesting thing, she sent me the photo of the railcard late at night while we were talking, and I said "I hope you didn’t get up to take the picture 😝, id prefer if you’d slept lol", and she mentioned she'd taken the photo yesterday, but "forgot" to send it. This is interesting regarding initiation, since she clearly puts effort into making the conversation, but still doesn't initiate very often. Feb 28, 11:42am: I asked our mutual friend what he thought: 0. they have spent 16 h in-person with her. 1. They thought we were already “a thing” when they met us. 2. In their discussion with her, they identified what she likes in a guy: 2.1 “Extroverted but shares some of her interests. Someone who isn’t introverted [a]nd doesn’t spend all the time watching TV or is very awkward” 3. She told them that she “wasn’t really interested in relationships” 3.1, They interpret this to mean not that she would reject everyone, but that she isn’t actively seeking anyone, especially because she has some idea of what she’d like in a guy and the fact she wants children. 4. They approve my plan to ask her out. 5. They say p is between 50–60 % 5.1 They think the likely outcome is that she will ask me for some time to think about it before saying yes. 6. Regarding initiation, she doesn’t like to initiate, but she likes to talk to people. 7. She isn’t the romantic type, so probably wouldn’t be too into hand-holding, hugging etc. So 6 confirms what I was thinking, 2.1 is somewhat concerning since I’m not extroverted, but I assume she meant not someone who has low social skills. I’ll be asking her tomorrow, so get your bets in. Close date updated to 2022-03-01 12:00 pm Mar 1, 11:57am: So she said no, but she did say when I asked she was only 80 % sure she would say no; ie even she thought it was 20 %. Concerning my %, when the crush started, I thought it was 25 % she liked me, and it later went to 33 % when I asked. Although an interesting trend was people who knew me well would give low %s, like 30 % and later 50 %, whereas people who didn’t would give really high %s like 60-70 % at the start, which seems to be replicated in today’s market (although I did think the market was correcting around feb 23). I don’t think 79 % is really a realistic %, as the baseline for “do they like me?” I think would be like 0,1 % by Fermi estimation (assume 100 friends/acquaintances and people are attracted to someone 10 % of the time), maybe 1 % if people are always attracted to someone. IMO the market really should’ve been at 40 % max. But thanks for believing in me 😊 , and for taking part in this experiment.

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ242
2		Ṁ104
3		Ṁ64
4		Ṁ57
5		Ṁ46

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