I'm an 18 year old male freshman in university with a high school cross-country 5k PR of 18:18 (equivalent to approximately 17:20 track or 17:40 road). My 2-mile PR (10:46) predicts a 17:17 track 5k (VDOT). I ran these times roughly 2 years ago while competing in high school. Currently, my Garmin predicts a 21:22 5k, which I think is a fairly accurate prediction, though Garmin has typically overestimated my speed in the past.

I train far less than I used to, and I have gotten much slower. But now, to achieve peak shape (sub-18:18), I plan to run at least 5 days per week, targeting a minimum of 30 miles weekly by June and employing using lactate threshold training methods. Training consistency has previously been a challenge for me, though, as seen on my Strava (https://www.strava.com/athletes/45805350).

Resolution Criteria:

• I commit to running at least two all-out 5k time trials or races during the market period.

• Trials or races will be recorded on Strava but will resolve using Garmin Connect's official 5k split, since Strava's is sometimes slightly off.

• If conducted on a track or official race, the official or measured 5000m time will override my watch’s measurement.

• If fewer than two attempts are made and recorded, this market resolves as N/A.

• Multiple attempts allowed; fastest recorded 5k determines market resolution.

• Multiple outcomes may resolve YES simultaneously (e.g, a sub-16:59 outcome resolves all slower outcomes as YES, a 21:01 resolves all outcomes NO.)
  
  

Weekly training summaries and key updates will be posted each Sunday at approximately 12PM PST in the comments section. Strava data is live, though, so there will be an edge to people who follow my Strava. Insider trading restrictions apply: I will only trade YES shares, never NO, and only within 2-4 hours after my weekly update to maintain fairness. I will not disclose any information that is not in a comment to anyone who has any chance of trading on this market.