Patrick Barry's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.32
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Patrick Barry bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- Will the Good Law Project successfully sue the UK Government in London?YESṀ100
- Will there be a school shooting that results in the death of 2 or more children and/or teachers OUTSIDE THE US in 2023?YESṀ10
- Will there be a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, or telecommunications infrastructure by February 2023?YESṀ10