Critical Hit's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.73
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Critical Hit bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
80%
90%
- Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Into Extremely Good Faith Debate And It's On The Twitter Files" reach 80k views or more by 2/28 9 A.M.?YESṀ10
- Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on March 10th?YESṀ10
- Will Destiny's video "HE'S NOT LIKE SNEAKO! MoistCr1tikal Defends Destiny" reach 80k views by 3/28 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ10