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MANIFOLD
Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?
11
Ṁ1kṀ835
2027
36%
chance

With the news that AISI UK gave live Internet access to Mythos and malicious actions ensued (Incident Report: unsanctioned agent behaviour during cyber testing | AISI Work) I'm wondering how long it will be before safety researchers cause an LLM under their control to release a virus or worm to the greater Internet.

The nature of the prompts given does not matter for resolution, but for a YES resolution the humans running the LLM must ostensibly be either at safety/security labs or frontier labs; that is, organizations whose reputation would be harmed by releasing malware.

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To help calibrate your estimates of frontier lab capabilities (human), here are two OpenAI employees describing how they figured out they were responsible for the HuggingFace incident. https://youtu.be/87DyyMV0kCY?is=jw3zw4wDbjhqi5nx