Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?
8
Ṁ1kṀ7932027
37%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
With the news that AISI UK gave live Internet access to Mythos and malicious actions ensued (Incident Report: unsanctioned agent behaviour during cyber testing | AISI Work) I'm wondering how long it will be before safety researchers cause an LLM under their control to release a virus or worm to the greater Internet.
The nature of the prompts given does not matter for resolution, but for a YES resolution the humans running the LLM must ostensibly be either at safety/security labs or frontier labs; that is, organizations whose reputation would be harmed by releasing malware.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
.png)